Assistance with Incorporating Impacts into Integrated Assessment

Lead Investigator: 
Thomas J. Wilbanks
Participating Staff: 
Sherry Wright
Collaborators: 
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and others
Sponsors: 
US DOE, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER), Integrated Assessment Research Program
Start Date: 
May 14, 2007
End Date: 
Ongoing

This project assists the DOE Integrated Assessment Research Program with improving the capacity to incorporate climate change impacts, adaptations, and vulnerabilities (IAV) in integrated assessment modeling and analysis and in connecting these capabilities with climate and earth system modeling and analysis. It is particularly concerned with strengthening the science base and tool sets for understanding IAV issues for the nation’s energy sector and with strengthening capacities for understanding dynamic interactions and interdependencies among various categories of built infrastructures, such as energy and water. 

Significance

Climate change science is a combination of (a) climate science/earth system modeling (CM/ESM), (b) integrated assessment modeling (IAM), and (c) impact, adaptation, and vulnerability analysis (IAV).  IAM develops scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions as a function of economic and energy technology driving forces, which are then used by CM/ESM as starting points for climate change scenarios. The third loop is to convert the climate change scenarios into impacts and adaptive responses, especially where those impacts and responses would in turn shape energy production and use. This project assists DOE and the IAM community in improving the capacity to close this third loop, emphasizing energy sector impacts and adaptations, along with linkages between the energy sector and impacts and adaptations in the water, land use, and other sectors.